Supersonic Man

September 28, 2013

the end of the US trade deficit?

Filed under: Rantation and Politicizing,thoughtful handwaving — Supersonic Man @ 9:55 pm

Two years ago, I wrote a post about deficits, and whether we should respond to the recession by printing even more money.  It discussed the causes of our deficit spending, and the theory which says that it’s impossible not to run a constant governmental spending deficit as long as we run a trade deficit… which means, in other words, as long as other countries keep selling us goods in exchange for dollars that they don’t spend back here, but instead use as the medium of capitalism at home.  This theory, as best I know, is most identified with the liberal economist James Galbraith.  It says that as long as we act as treasurer and currency supplier to capitalists overseas, we must run corresponding deficits domestically, which means the shortfall has to be either borrowed or printed (and watch out you don’t print too much).

But now I’m hearing about interesting happenings on this front from the more conservative economist John Mauldin.  And there’s big news here that I never expected.  I had thought that the “strong dollar policy” — the political decision to encourage worldwide demand for dollars, which produces all our deficits — would be something that it might be very difficult to back our way out of.  Among other things, it would require that some other currency could step up and be the new “reserve currency” that people use for international wealth.  I thought no other currency was in a position to take on that role.

Well, it looks like the Chinese renminbi (or yuan, informally) is starting to do just that.  And at the same time, the US is starting to do a lot more exporting.  Some of this has to do with increased fossil fuel production, some of it has to do with decreased wages, some of it has to do with Obama administration policies… and maybe some of it is actually a direct result of yuans coming out to play.

So quicker and easier than I ever thought could happen, we might be scaling back our production of dollars to a volume more suitable for a domestic economy.  And we’ll start seeing “Made in USA” on products again… which means that the incredible cheapness we’ve become accustomed to from Chinese products will become a thing of the past. (Some of the products we import now actually lose money for their makers.)  This would mean people will start to feel how poor they’ve actually become, and want better pay.  It’ll cause some discomfort.

And meanwhile, the newly ascended Chinese economy will find its greatest source of wealth drying up, and suddenly have to create prosperity on its own.  These factors will all tend to create a negative feedback on any such change, causing an inertia that will slow down the transition.  But Mauldin believes it will still happen faster than anyone expects.  Maybe, maybe not.

Mauldin’s friend David Brin, the SF novelist, points out one aspect of this which I hadn’t appreciated: namely, that the strong dollar policy, though best known here for how it hurt American workers, has done a tremendous amount of good for people overseas.  It has subsidized the creation of middle classes in China, India, and many other countries. It has helped lift a huge number of the world’s citizens out of poverty!  Brin has been accused of exaggerating the economic importance of this money, but still, in that light, the mild impoverishment of the American working class suddenly doesn’t seem like such a high price.

The “quantitative easing” that has been supporting the big banks since the last crash has also done a lot to stimulate developing economies, Mauldin says. That obviously needs to wind down. The Fed has warned that the first decreases may start soon.

Maybe the strong dollar policy’s job is now largely done and it’s time to move past that phase — time to wean the developing world from the dollar teat, in Brin’s terms.  It’ll have to be a gradual thing — too sudden a move might cause a crash in areas with a lot of current dependency on that cash flow.  And even a very gradual reduction is going to eventually cause some kind of shakeout. But apparently that transition is under way.

But it does sound alarmingly like it all depends, more than anyone likes to admit, on natural gas fracking. Which means that tightening the environmental regulations on that very unclean practice might end up restoring all our deficits. At least for the short term. This certainly helps me understand why policymakers are so eager to continue fracking despute the blatantly awful environmental costs… because it produces wealth vast enough to reshape the entire world economy.

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September 27, 2013

Why I marched against Monsanto

Filed under: Rantation and Politicizing — Supersonic Man @ 10:24 pm

This post has been promoted to a permanent page on my website, here.

September 21, 2013

Java is doomed?

Filed under: Hobbyism and Nerdry — Supersonic Man @ 9:25 am

I was talking earlier about Windows now having a somewhat bleak future despite still being firmly dominant today, and now I have to recognize something else that’s gotten itself into a similar position: the Java language. Over much of the last decade it’s probably been the most widely used programming language… though it’s hard to be sure, and it certainly was never in any position of majority dominance.  But now nobody sees any kind of growth in its future, and other languages like C# are making it look outdated.  Combine that with the well-publicized security troubles which, among other things, nailed shut the coffin for applets in the browser (the one place where the average computer user came into direct contact with the Java brand), and nobody’s seeing it as the right horse to bet on anymore.

Which is a shame, because it’s still one of the most widely supported and most available languages, and it’s probably still the best teaching language in the C-derived family.  It’s going to have to be fairly widely used in schools, even if it drops slowly out of use in industry.  There isn’t a suitable replacement for that role yet, as far as I can see.

Even as it gets into a state where people scoff at it for real work, it might still be unavoidable for a long time as something you have to know.

. . . . .

Another sad observation of decline: I think MS Office is now better at supporting Open Office than OpenOffice.org is at supporting MS Office.

September 10, 2013

strict doctypes and old markup

Filed under: Hobbyism and Nerdry — Supersonic Man @ 9:49 am

I thought strict doctypes, like XMTML Strict, were just for eliminating all the deprecated HTML tags that were used for stuff that now uses CSS, such as <font> and <center>.  But there are a couple of gotchas with it.  For instance, strict [X]HTML does not allow you to put a target= attribute on a link.  Apparently this is considered a matter of presentation and styling, though only cutting-edge implementations of CSS support setting it in a stylesheet.  But the one that really makes me scratch my head is that <blockquote> is only allowed to contain block-level elements.  What?  The obvious semantics of a block quote are that it should contain text.  But no, now it’s only supposed to contain paragraphs and divs, not act as a paragraph in itself.

(I’m posting this partly just as a sort of note to myself.)

I do try to use modern standards, but my website has content dating back as far as 1996, so no way am I going to clean out all the old <font> tags.

Maybe I should at least validate capejeer.com, since the content there is all fairly new, and generated from a single master page that I can easily modernize.

[update] I did: capejeer.com is now fully XHTML Strict compliant, though paulkienitz.net still has tons of content that’s stuck at a Netscape 4 level of markup, using no CSS at all.  The front landing page is the only part that uses any modern browser technology, and even that dates mainly from about 2005.

[update 2] I made a spreadsheet of all the HTML pages on paulkienitz.net assessing their state of modernity in terms of styling.  The current status is:

  • root level: almost everything is archaic except the index page and the one page that draws the most search traffic.
  • the old film-era photo gallery folder (which frankly, has been an embarrassment for some time, and really needs updating, or even just some severe culling) is also completely archaic.
  • the Enron & Friends material is 90% bad, with a light sprinkling of modern style tweaks, but the current events movie reviews in the same folder are 90% good.
  • the B movie folder is good, and the boids folder, plus bits in the Amiga folder and the Reagan folder.
  • two of the biggest folders are good, but they’re both unfinished projects which are not yet exposed to the public.

The question is, which of these archaic areas is even worth updating?  The answer would be, almost none.  They’re all dated, essentially of historical interest only, except for the gallery, where markup is the least of its problems.

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